Heat surges risk ecosystem collapse and threaten an unborn generation|10 new climate insights reveal

Geneva, Stockholm, October 28th, 2024 – Surging global temperatures that are making our planet increasingly uninhabitable are disrupting our oceans’ vital planetary processes, pushing the Amazon to the brink of large-scale collapse, and threatening an unborn generation by heightening chances of pregnancy complications and even loss.

Launched today by a consortium of globally renowned social, natural and climate scientists, the annual synthesis report ‘10 New Insights In Climate Science’ unveils the overwhelming impacts of climate change that risk reversing decades of progress on maternal and reproductive health, contributing to more extreme and costly El Niño effects, and jeopardising one of our most vital natural carbon sinks, along with seven other key climate insights.

The report spans a vast range of climate research and is designed to equip policymakers with the latest and most pivotal climate research published over the past 18 months. The climate science is synthesised to highlight the policy implications that can inform negotiations at COP29 and policy through 2025 and beyond.

“This report confirms that the world faces planetary scale challenges, from the rise of methane emissions to the vulnerability of critical infrastructure. It shows that rising heat, ocean instability and a tipping of the Amazon Rainforest could push parts of our planet beyond habitable limits. Yet, it also provides clear pathways and solutions, demonstrating that with urgent, decisive action, we still can avoid unmanageable outcomes,” said Prof. Johan Rockström, co-chair of The Earth League.

Ahead of COP29, scientists are once again supporting policymakers and leaders with scientific insights that have clear policy implications for developing comprehensive mitigation and adaptation strategies. The report urges policymakers at COP29 to reflect on these insights in updating the submissions of their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) (due in early 2025), and drive attention to them within negotiations, including on the pivotal issues of climate finance.

"Global temperature records continue to break, pushing the Paris Agreement's goals further out of reach and exacerbating threats to maternal health. This is particularly acute in climate-vulnerable nations as it’s compounded with limited access to education and low incomes, in addition to the breakdown of critical infrastructure which further compromises food security, sanitation and healthcare services. Preparedness for heat extremes, including early warning systems, must be a priority at the national and regional scale. Without action, the consequences could be catastrophic. Without systemic shifts, future generations will be impacted,” said Prof. Dr Jemilah Mahmood, executive director of the Sunway Centre for Planetary Health.

The report also spotlights two major challenges to the natural world. Ocean warming persists and sea surface temperature records continue to be broken leading to El Niño events that are far more severe than previously understood. According to the report, the projected additional global economic losses due to increases in El Niño frequency and intensity resulting from global warming could be almost $100 trillion over the 21st century.

Furthermore, concerns are mounting that the Amazon nears critical thresholds, with deforestation, forest degradation and climate change shifting parts of the forest from carbon sinks to carbon sources. Urgent action is needed to preserve its resilience by safeguarding its ecological and cultural diversity.

The report highlights that, although there is an urgent need for ambitious policies that drive significant emissions reductions, these must be perceived as fair by the citizens for them to be accepted and, hence, effective. Climate policies perceived as unfair can give rise to entrenched resistance, limiting the success of policies and in some cases contributing to civil unrest.

“Ignoring citizens’ readiness and needs when designing and implementing climate policies will ultimately lead to many missed opportunities in the near term through undermined and ineffective climate policy. According to the IPCC, 40% of the world are already highly vulnerable to the ever-rising global temperatures. Policymaking in every country must be inclusive and carefully navigate a variety of socio-economic factors, to enhance policy acceptability," said Prof. Joyashree Roy at the Asian Institute of Technology.

The ‘10 New Insights in Climate Science’ series, launched with the UNFCCC at the COPs since 2017, is a collaborative initiative of Future Earth, the Earth League and the World Climate Research Programme, synthesising the key recent developments in climate change research. This year’s report represents the collective efforts of more than 80 leading researchers from 45 countries.