Antiviral treatment

We conducted a reanalysis of remdesivir (potential antiviral treatment for COVID) clinical trial data using Bayesian statistics.

Early authorizations of remdesivir in Europe and the USA were largely based on results from two clinical trials. A third study published by Wang et al. was underpowered and deemed inconclusive. Although regulators have shown an interest in interpreting the Wang et al. study, under a frequentist framework it is difficult to determine if the non-significant finding was caused by a lack of power or by the absence of an effect. Bayesian hypothesis testing does allow for quantification of evidence in favor of the absence of an effect.

Results of our reanalysis of the three trials show ambiguous evidence for the primary outcome of clinical improvement and moderate evidence against the secondary outcome of decreased mortality rate. Additional analyses of three studies published after initial marketing approval support these findings, suggesting that remdesivir has little to no effect against COVID-19.

Project collaborators: Sarahanne Field, Joyce Hoek, Don van Ravenzwaaij, Ymkje Anna de Vries, Maximilian Linde, Merle-Marie Pittelkow, Jasmine Muradchanian
Contactperson: Joyce Hoek
Department: Psychology, Psychometric & Statistics

Our publication:

Hoek, J. M., Field, S. M., de Vries, Y. A., Linde, M., Pittelkow, M. M., Muradchanian, J., & van Ravenzwaaij, D. (2021). Rethinking remdesivir for COVID-19: A Bayesian reanalysis of trial findings. PloS one, 16(7), e0255093.

Article by the Correspondent that cites our article.