Publications on demographic trends and housing

The PRC was commissioned by a group of Dutch housing corporations to provide insight into future demographic trends in the northern Dutch provinces.

This question reflects the recent attention to regional population decline in the Netherlands, geared by the report "Structural Population Decline" by Derks et al. (2006).  In the reports, two national forecasts (PEARL and PRIMOS), alongside the respective provincial forecasts, are compared to the expectations by Derks et al.  The expectations by Derks et al. were the most negative suggesting a high level of population decline. The other forecasts provided different views, with the provincial expectations, overall, the most positive.  These results indicate that, on the whole, the population in the Dutch northern provinces will continue to increase until 2020. However, strong regional differences are expected: growth regions (often containing the important municipalities) exist along regions where population decline, in some cases, has already begun.  Housing demand remains high in all but a few regions. This is caused by an expected decrease in the average household size, due to an increase in the amount of single person households at all ages. This trend will affect the qualitative housing demand as well.  Migration is expected to become the most important growth component, with natural growth stagnating in most regions. Foreign migration especially, is expected to improve relative to a rather modest trend in domestic migration.  

The authors recommend that relevant local shareholders should be included in the process of population projections, and that national projections should be used as a benchmark for these expectations. This improves awareness of relevant population processes, and the uncertainties surrounding them.

This is a Dutch publication:

"Demografische trends en de ontwikkeling van kwantitatieve en kwalitatieve woningbehoefte; een verkenning voor de noordelijke provincies".