SimFirms. Demography of firms: a microsimulation model

PhD ceremony: Ms. C.C. Huisman, 12.45 uur, Academiegebouw, Broerstraat 5, Groningen

Dissertation: SimFirms. Demography of firms: a microsimulation model

Promotor(s): prof. L.J.G. van Wissen

Faculty: Spatial Sciences

Demography is the study of population structure and change. Looking at mortality and fertility, growth and migration, population dynamics and population projections, Corina Huisman demonstrates that demographic concepts and methods can be applied to a population of firms too. Each of the demographic events is analysed and modelled in separate chapters, using micro data for the Dutch province of Gelderland. Based on the outcomes, all sub-models are brought together in one microsimulation model (SimFirms). SimFirms is able to forecast the number of establishments and the number of jobs as well as the regional distribution of these establishments and jobs over the province. With SimFirms four different futures for establishments and jobs in Gelderland are formulated, calculated, described and analysed. One of the most important conclusions of the exercise is that demography itself (the ageing and shrinking of the labour force population) has the most important effect on the future development of establishments in Gelderland.