TF colloquium with Richard Bradley

Dear all,

The next TF colloquium takes place on Wednesday November 1st and will be followed by drinks.

Speaker: Richard Bradley (London School of Economics and Political Science)

Title: The Interpretation of Conditional Chance

Abstract: A fully adequate interpretation of the concepts of chance and of conditional chance should, inter alia, make sense of discourse in which these concepts appear, explain why (conditional) chances are (conditional) probabilities, account for the objectivity of chances and conditional chances and account for their authority with respect to what we believe and what we choose. No extant theory of chance does so. In this talk I will propose and interpretation that does. Its says that the (conditional) chances at a given time are the (conditional) credences warranted by what is settled as true (or knowable) at that time or, more metaphorically, the credences of a perfect inductive reasoner that is as fully informed as it is possible to be.